So Cal Multifamily Sales Pulse - August 25, 2024 - August 31, 2024
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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You
| Monthly Mortgage Payment Has Declined for the First Time in Four Years House hunters are showing renewed interest in the market. |
Household Ownership May Be Significantly Overstated Apartment List suggests that the commonly used metric confuses living at home and owning that home. |
| Powell Gives Thumb's Up on Rate Cuts Barring some terrible surprise to everyone, cuts will start in September. But how large and for how long is still a guess. |
CRE Gets Ready for Imminent Rate Cut Analysts weigh in on how the Fed’s widely anticipated move will impact the industry. |
| Is the CRE Market Ready to Turn? While the Fed hasn’t outright said “yes, we’re cutting rates in September,” Wall Street is already responding, with the 10-year Treasury falling below 4%. |
When Demand Is There But Prices Are Not Whether that's high interest rates and demand not keeping up with supply, or fears of recession, there are a lot of uncertainties that remain currently. |
| Distress: Not Widespread Yet But on the Rise Hospitality was the asset class most impacted by distress activity at 7.2% of total sales. |
Fed, Businesses, and Others See Recession Possibilities Fade But some fear that people could get too confident. |
| 2024 CMBS Delinquency Rates The Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate continued ticking up in July 2024. Overall, the delinquency rate increased 8 basis points to 5.43 percent. |
Where are Cap Rates Headed? I expect the federal funds rate to drop 1.0%-1.5% this year and 1.5%-2.0% in 2025. |
| Commercial Real Estate Distress Up, But Not Widespread Yet Despite concerns, distressed CRE sales remain below pre-pandemic levels, though signs indicate a potential hospitality and office rebound. |
CMBS Distress Rate Rises 32 BPs in August In August, CMBS loans totaling $1.7 billion were newly added to the distress rate, of which 64.6% was due to imminent or actual maturity default. |
| Major Banks Report Surge in Noncurrent Commercial Real Estate Loans Regulators Take Notice of Growing Amount of Financing Behind in Payments, Notably Office Lending. |
Falling Mortgage Rates Have Yet to Improve Home Sales, With Buyers Uncertain About NAR Settlement, Election Pending home sales posted their biggest decline in nearly a year, despite the median U.S. housing payment dropping to its lowest level in five months. |
| Biden Administration Keeps Extending Renter Friendly Efforts The newest GSE requirements raise the question of what comes next. |
Typical Home Down Payment Reaches Record $68K Nearly three in five homebuyers put down more than 10% of the purchase price. |
| IRR Mid-Year Report Sees CRE Industry Reaching a Turning Point We are seeing a stabilization in property prices and a modest increase in values this year. |
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